“没人愿意再工作了”：终身劳动力市场经历与美国男性劳动参与率的下降
'Nobody Wants to Work Anymore': Lifetime Labor Market Experiences and the Decline of Male LFP in the United States
NBER Working Papers · 2026 · [{"name": "Remy Levin", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Daniela Vidart", "affiliation": []}]
中文摘要
在美国，男性劳动参与率已连续50年稳步下降。我们的研究表明，其原因之一是男性关于工作回报的信念发生了变化，而这种信念是由其一生中经历的整体男性劳动力市场状况所塑造的。我们发现，经历效应对劳动参与的影响在跨州迁移的男性中依然持续存在，在同种族男性的经历中更为显著，并且主要由童年关键形成期所驱动。我们还记录了这些经历对劳动力市场预期直接测度的影响。我们的研究结果表明，经历效应能够将劳动需求的短期下降转化为劳动供给的长期下降。
Abstract
Male labor force participation has declined steadily for 50 years in the United States. We show that one cause has been changes in men's beliefs about the returns to work, shaped by lifetime experiences of the aggregate male labor market. We find that experience effects on participation persist for men who move across state lines, are stronger for same-race male experiences, and are driven by formative childhood years. We also document effects of experiences on direct measures of labor market expectations. Our findings suggest that experience effects can turn short-run declines in labor demand into long-run declines in labor supply.