在大规模出走之前？青年科学家与美国科学的未来
Before the Exodus? Young Scientists and the Future of US Science
NBER Working Papers · 2026 · [{"name": "Pierre Azoulay", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Raffaella Sadun", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Daniela Scur", "affiliation": []}]
中文摘要
2025年初美国科学资助政策发生重大变化后不久，我们对916名年轻生物医学科学家——包括博士生和博士后研究人员——进行了调查，了解他们的职业意向与预期。结果显示，受访者情绪出现了剧烈转变：如今仅有略多于一半的受访者表示可能留在学术界，较六个月前下降了22个百分点；可能留在美国的比例下降了21个百分点；甚至对攻读科学博士学位的满意度也下降了16个百分点。这些并非在职资深科学家为维护自身预算而发出的抱怨，而是下一代科学家所陈述的意向——在正常情况下，他们本应成为未来的首席研究员。
Abstract
Shortly after major policy changes to US science funding began in early 2025, we surveyed 916 young biomedical scientists – PhD students and postdoctoral researchers – about their career intentions and expectations. The results document a dramatic shift in sentiment. Barely half of respondents now say they are likely to remain in academia, down 22 percentage points from how they felt six months earlier. The fraction likely to stay in the United States fell by 21 percentage points. Even satisfaction with having pursued a PhD in science declined by 16 percentage points. These are not the complaints of established scientists defending their budgets, but rather the stated intentions of the next generation – the scientists who would, in ordinary times, become the principal investigators of the future.