中文摘要
本文研究保护主义的分配结果。首先,我们利用美国临时性贸易壁垒的高频度量指标估计结构向量自回归模型 (VAR),考察保护主义对不同技能水平工人的短期分配效应。随后,我们使用适用关税税率对包含三十六个国家的样本估计面板 VAR。在我们的各项实证分析中,我们发现了稳健的证据,表明保护主义降低了技能溢价,但提高了高技能与低技能工人的就业比。为解释这些发现,我们构建了一个两国动态一般均衡模型,其特征包括不对称的搜寻—匹配 (SAM) 摩擦、生产中的资本—技能互补性 (CSC) 以及生产者动态。模型结果复现了实证模式。反事实分析突出了不对称 SAM 与 CSC 在定性层面如何塑造保护主义的分配模式,而生产者动态则在数量层面放大这些效应。
Abstract
This paper studies the distributional outcomes of protectionism. First, we investigate the short-run distributional effects on workers with different skill levels by estimating structural vector autoregressions (VARs) using high-frequency measures of temporary trade barriers for the United States. We then estimate a panel VAR for a sample of thirty-six countries using the applied tariff rates. Across our empirical exercises, we find robust evidence that protectionism reduces the skill premium but increases the employment ratio between high-skilled and low-skilled workers. To rationalize these findings, we build a two-country dynamic general equilibrium model featuring asymmetric search-and-matching (SAM) frictions, capital-skill complementarity (CSC) in production, and producer dynamics. Our model results replicate the empirical patterns. Our counterfactual analysis highlights the interaction between asymmetric SAM and CSC in qualitatively shaping the distributional patterns of protectionism, with producer dynamics magnifying these effects quantitatively.