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技术变迁与失业保障

Technological change and insuring job loss
Review of Economic Dynamics · 2025 · John Carter Braxton、Bledi Taska

中文摘要

我们考察技术变迁在塑造失业者保险中的作用。我们将技术变迁、职业选择与就业风险纳入一个Bewley型经济,以考察针对失业工人的再培训补贴与公共保险转移支付的最优组合。我们发现,相对于美国现行政策,最优政策引入了针对失业工人的再培训补贴,并提高了对失业者转移支付的慷慨程度。功利主义政府将再培训补贴作为最优政策的一部分,因为此类补贴在失业后提供了额外的、更长期限的消费保险,同时仅带来适度的扭曲性税收增加。在不存在技术变迁的情形下,由于失业后收入下降的持续性较弱,功利主义政府会对再培训的学费成本设定较低的补贴。

Abstract

We examine the role of technological change in shaping insurance to the unemployed. We integrate technological change, occupation choice, and employment risk into a Bewley-style economy to examine the optimal combination of retraining subsidies and public insurance transfers for unemployed workers. We find that the optimal policy introduces a retraining subsidy to unemployed workers and increases the generosity of transfers to the unemployed relative to current U.S. policy. The utilitarian government incorporates retraining subsidies as part of an optimal policy as they provide additional, longer run, consumption insurance after job loss while imposing only modest increases in distortionary taxes. In the absence of technological change, a utilitarian government sets a lower subsidy on the tuition cost of retraining as earnings declines after job loss are less persistent.
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