中文摘要
本文研究近几十年来劳动力市场流动率的下降,特别是求职率、离职率与换工率。我分析了工作专业化程度上升在解释这一下降中的作用,其中专业化被定义为错配对匹配生产率的影响。结合NLSY79和NLSY97的个体层面数据与ASVAB和O*NET的技能数据,我对工作专业化进行了实证估计,并表明专业化程度随时间上升。为了量化这种专业化程度上升对劳动力市场流动率的影响,我构建了一个具有双边事前异质性、在职搜寻和内生离职的均衡搜寻与匹配模型。校准后的模型表明,更高的工作专业化会导致劳动力市场流动率的所有度量指标下降。随着专业化程度上升,企业和工人在形成匹配时变得更加挑剔。因此,匹配良好的企业和工人选择更长时间地保持其匹配关系,而糟糕的匹配则被更快地破坏。由于更高的专业化导致经济中良好匹配的比例上升,从而带来劳动力市场流动率的下降。
Abstract
This paper studies the decline in labor market turnover over recent decades, in particular, job finding, separation, and job changing rates. I analyze the role of an increase in specialization of jobs in accounting for this decline, where specialization is defined as the impact of mismatch on match productivity. Combining individual-level data from NLSY79 and NLSY97 with data on skills from ASVAB and O*NET, I empirically estimate job specialization and show that the specialization has increased over time. To quantify the impact of this increasing specialization on labor market turnover, I build an equilibrium search and matching model with two-sided ex ante heterogeneity, on-the-job search, and endogenous separations. The calibrated model shows that higher job specialization leads to a decline in all the measures of labor market turnover. As specialization increases, firms and workers become more selective in forming matches. Thus, well-matched firms and workers choose to remain in their matches longer, while bad matches get destroyed faster. Since higher specialization leads to an increase in the proportion of good matches in the economy, it results in a decline in the labor market turnover.