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1950—2022年美国家庭债务的分布

The distribution of household debt in the United States, 1950-2022
Review of Economic Dynamics · 2025 · Alina K. Bartscher、Moritz Kuhn、Moritz HP. Schularick、Ulrike I. Steins

中文摘要

利用新的家庭层面数据,我们研究了1950年以来美国家庭债务的长期增长及其分布。大部分债务为住房抵押贷款,其早期增长源于举债家庭数量的增多;而1980年以后,债务增长则主要源于家庭借入更多。我们发现,集中于白人中产阶级的住房权益提取(home equity extraction)是最大成因,对代际不平等和生命周期债务状况产生了强烈影响。值得注意的是,由于房价上涨,新增债务并未降低家庭的净资产。我们的结论是,基于资产价格的借贷已成为家庭消费—储蓄决策不可分割的一部分,但代价是更高的金融脆弱性。

Abstract

Using new household-level data, we study the secular increase in U.S. household debt and its distribution since 1950. Most of the debt were mortgages, which initially grew because more households borrowed. Yet after 1980, debt mostly grew because households borrowed more. We uncover home equity extraction, concentrated in the white middle class, as the largest cause, strongly affecting intergenerational inequality and life-cycle debt profiles. Remarkably, the additional debt did not lower households' net worth because of rising house prices. We conclude that asset-price-based borrowing became an integral part of households' consumption-saving decisions, yet at the cost of higher financial fragility.
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