中文摘要
已有大量文献对经济周期中就业、职位空缺与产出的协同波动进行建模。本文在这一文献基础上,结合实证考察,以与近期微观证据相一致的方式对工人的搜寻行为与企业的招聘行为进行建模。与实证发现相一致的是,对于任一给定的职位空缺,企业会收到大量求职申请,并从中挑选其最中意的候选人;同样,无论处于失业还是就业状态,工人都可以同时评估多个空缺职位,并选择向其中哪些职位提交申请。经济周期通过经济中的动荡得以传导。模型的结构参数在美国数据上进行估计,并以总量时间序列作为匹配目标。该模型能够生成失业、职位空缺以及工人跨岗位流动与就业状态转换的大幅波动。此外,模型为2008年衰退后贝弗里奇曲线的移动提供了理论机制——这一现象通常被称为“无就业复苏”,即衰退过后就业持续低迷,尽管单位工人产出和职位空缺均已恢复至危机前水平。
Abstract
There has been a substantial body of work modeling the co-movement of employment, vacancies, and output over the business cycle. This paper builds on this literature, and informed by empirical investigation, models worker and firm search and hiring behavior in a manner consistent with recent micro-evidence. Consistent with empirical findings, for a given vacancy, a firm receives many applicants, and chooses their preferred candidate amongst the set. Similarly, workers in both unemployment and employment, can evaluate many open vacancies simultaneously and choose to which they make an application. Business cycles are propagated through turbulence in the economy.Structural parameters of the model are estimated on U.S. data, targeting aggregate time series. The model can generate large volatility in unemployment, vacancies, and worker flows across jobs and employment state. Further, it provides a theoretical mechanism for the shift in the Beveridge curve after the 2008 recession - a phenomenon often referred to as the jobless recovery. That is, persistently low employment after the recession, despite output per worker and vacancies having returned to pre-crisis levels.