Review of Economic Dynamics · 2025 · Andrew Berg、Edward F. Buffie、Mariarosaria Comunale、Chris Papageorgiou、Luis‐Felipe Zanna
中文摘要
当前的技术革命浪潮正在改变政策的运作方式。本文在一个包含“机器人”资本(机器人、人工智能、计算机、大数据、数字化、网络、传感器和伺服系统的广义定义)的新古典增长模型中,考察了削减企业所得税税率以及在基础设施和教育方面进行公共投资的增长与分配含义。我们发现,将机器人资本纳入模型会使政策结果产生很大差异:企业所得税削减对非技能工资的涓滴效应被削弱,而基础设施投资、尤其是教育投资的优势则更大。基于我们的校准(其依据是新的实证估计),在“传统”经济中,基础设施投资和企业所得税削减的影响超过教育投资。然而,在拥有机器人的经济中,基础设施投资的影响超过企业所得税削减,而教育投资往往产生所有政策中最高的福利收益。
Abstract
The current wave of technological revolution is changing the way policies work. This paper examines the growth and distributional implications of cuts in the corporate tax rate and public investment in infrastructure and education in a neoclassical growth model with “robot” capital (a broad definition of robots, Artificial Intelligence, computers, big data, digitalization, networks, sensors and servos). We find that incorporating robot capital into the model makes a big difference to policy outcomes: the trickle-down effects of corporate tax cuts on unskilled wages are attenuated, and the advantages of investment in infrastructure, and especially in education, are bigger. Based on our calibrations, grounded in new empirical estimates, infrastructure investment and corporate tax cuts dominate investment in education in a “traditional” economy. However, in an economy with robots, infrastructure investment dominates corporate tax cuts, while investment in education tends to produce the highest welfare gains of all.