Does Regional Variation in Wage Levels Identify the Effects of a National Minimum Wage?
中文摘要
本文考察地区工资差异能否识别全国性最低工资的效应。我研究了两种常见的基于暴露度的方法:有效最低工资设计,即将最低工资与同期当地工资进行比较;以及受影响比例/缺口设计,即衡量改革前对新最低工资的暴露程度。利用理论、模拟以及来自巴西的证据,我展示了这些方法何时可能产生误导,以及其表现如何取决于设定选择。研究结果为应用研究者提供了切实可行的建议,包括何时应避免使用这些设计、如何检验其假设、哪些设定更为可靠,以及类似的担忧可能如何适用于其他情境。
Abstract
This paper asks whether regional wage differences can identify the effects of a national minimum wage. I study two common exposure-based approaches: effective-minimum-wage designs, which compare the minimum wage to contemporaneous local wages, and fraction-affected/gap designs, which measure pre-reform exposure to the new minimum. Using theory, simulations, and evidence from Brazil, I show when these approaches can mislead and how their performance depends on specification choices. The results lead to practical recommendations for applied researchers, including when to avoid these designs, how to test their assumptions, which specifications are more reliable, and how similar concerns may apply to other settings.