解释社会保障残疾保险参保的历史性上升和近期下降
Explaining the Historical Rise and Recent Decline in Social Security Disability Insurance Enrollment
NBER Working Papers · 2026 · [{"name": "Manasi Deshpande", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Maxwell Kellogg", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Magne Mogstad", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Kuan-Ju Tseng", "affiliation": []}]
中文摘要
在经历20世纪90年代和21世纪头十年的大幅增长后，美国社会保障残疾保险（SSDI）项目的参保人数自2013年以来持续下降。我们利用详细的行政数据，量化各种因素对SSDI参保趋势的贡献，尤其关注2010年代的下降。统计分解表明，2013年以来SSDI参保人数下降的绝大部分可归因于各人口群体内部申请率的下降，以及在较小程度上获批率的下降。人口特征、资格认定或退出SSDI等因素随时间的变化，对此贡献甚微。SSDI参保率的下降不成比例地由中低技能男性所驱动——随着时间推移，他们申请SSDI的可能性降低，而工作的可能性提高。与这一描述性证据一致，我们呈现的因果分析结果表明，低技能男性劳动力市场机会的改善是SSDI参保人数下降的一个关键解释。我们还考察了关于SSDI申请下降的其他几种流行假说，包括上诉环节获批率下降，并发现证据与这些假说相悖。
Abstract
After substantial growth in the 1990s and 2000s, enrollment in the U.S. Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) program has been declining since 2013. We use detailed administrative data to quantify the contributions of various factors to trends in SSDI enrollment, focusing especially on the decline in the 2010s. A statistical decomposition suggests that the vast majority of the decline in SSDI enrollment since 2013 is attributable to declines in application rates—and, to a lesser extent, award rates—within demographic groups. There is very little contribution from changes over time in demographic characteristics, eligibility, or exit from SSDI. The decline in SSDI enrollment rates is disproportionately driven by low-to-middle-skilled men who, over time, have become less likely to apply for SSDI and more likely to work. Consistent with this descriptive evidence, we present results from a causal analysis suggesting that improved labor market opportunity for less-skilled men is a key explanation for the decline in SSDI enrollment. We also investigate several other popular hypotheses for the decline in SSDI applications, including lower award rates at the appeals level, and find evidence at odds with them.