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保护乘数

The Conservation Multiplier
Journal of Political Economy · 2023 · Bård Harstad

中文摘要

每一个控制可耗竭资源的政府都必须决定是开采该资源还是保护它,从而让继任政府去决定是开采还是保护。本文针对这一情形构建了一个实证性(positive)理论,并揭示了参数值的微小变化何时会对开采产生乘数效应。该乘数强化了为开采付费的游说集团的影响力,也强化了为保护提供补偿的捐赠者的影响力。成功的捐赠者每期都要为每一单位付费;成功的游说集团则只需付费一次。这种不对称导致了无效率的开采。规范性分析揭示了补偿在何种情况下应最优地提供给执政党、普通公众或游说集团。

Abstract

Every government that controls an exhaustible resource must decide whether to exploit it or conserve it and thereby let the subsequent government decide whether to exploit or conserve. This paper develops a positive theory of this situation and shows when a small change in parameter values has a multiplier effect on exploitation. The multiplier strengthens the influence of a lobby paying for exploitation and of a donor compensating for conservation. A successful donor pays every period for each unit; a successful lobby pays once. This asymmetry causes inefficient exploitation. A normative analysis uncovers when compensations are optimally offered to the party in power, to the general public, or to the lobby.
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