The Economic Journal · 2024 · Achyuta Adhvaryu、Teresa Molina、Anant Nyshadham、Jorge Tamayo
中文摘要
生命早期面临严重劣势的儿童,往往在数年甚至数十年后处境更差。有条件现金转移支付项目能否减轻这些负面后果,帮助这些儿童赶上同龄人?我们利用墨西哥农村的数据回答这一问题,在那里降雨冲击会对家庭收入产生重大影响。我们发现,儿童出生年份的不利降雨会降低其受教育年限、高等教育入学率和就业结果。但对于家庭被随机分配接受有条件现金转移支付项目PROGRESA的儿童,下降幅度要小得多:童年时期每多接受一年PROGRESA项目,就能缓解受教育年限方面近20%的早期劣势。
Abstract
Children who face significant disadvantage early in life are often found to be worse off years or even decades later. Can conditional cash transfer programs mitigate the negative consequences and help these children catch up with their peers? We answer this question using data from rural Mexico, where rainfall shocks can have substantial effects on household income. We find that adverse rainfall in a child's year of birth decreases grade attainment, post-secondary enrolment and employment outcomes. But declines were much smaller for children whose families were randomised to receive the conditional cash transfer program, PROGRESA: each additional year of PROGRESA exposure during childhood mitigated almost 20% of the early disadvantage in grade attainment.