中文摘要
本文提供了政党如何在新兴选举民主政体中大规模影响选民的因果证据。我们收集了土耳其正义与发展党高速公路建设的新数据,并利用省份—年份层面的建设差异表明,正义与发展党的得票率随着高速公路的建设而上升。估计结果表明,高速公路使正义与发展党的得票率提高了4.8个百分点——相当于2002年至2011年增幅的三分之一。我们提供的证据表明,推动得票率上升的是高速公路扩张所彰显的可见度与治理能力信号,而非本地经济增长的加快。
Abstract
This paper provides causal evidence on how political parties can sway voters at scale in nascent electoral democracies. We collect novel data on expressway construction by the Justice and Development Party in Turkey and use province-by-year variation in construction to show that votes for the Justice and Development Party increased in response to the expressways. The estimates imply that the expressways increased the Justice and Development Party’s vote share by 4.8 percentage points—a third of the increase from 2002 to 2011. We provide evidence that the visibility and competence signalled by the expressway expansion, and not increased local economic growth, drove increased vote shares.