年龄—受害率曲线的断点与受害的决定因素

中文摘要

荷兰的受害率在刚满16岁和18岁时分别上升9%–15%。我们利用犯罪地点数据、由2014年改革驱动的最低法定饮酒年龄的跨队列变异，以及关于酒精/毒品消费与流动行为的调查数据，厘清了在这些年龄被授予的众多权利所起的作用。我们得出结论：获得低度酒精饮料、酒吧/夜店和吸烟的机会增加了16岁时的受害，而18岁时的权利（烈性酒、大麻咖啡馆）加剧了这一风险；获得车辆的机会并不发挥重要作用。我们未发现系统性溢出至仍不符合这些权利资格的个体的证据。

Abstract

Dutch victimisation rates increase by 9%–15% immediately upon reaching ages 16 and 18. We disentangle the role of the many rights granted at these ages using offence location data, cross-cohort variation in the minimum legal drinking age driven by a 2014 reform and survey data of alcohol/drug consumption and mobility behaviours. We conclude that access to weak alcohol, bars/clubs and smoking increases victimisation at 16 and that age-18 rights (hard alcohol, marijuana coffee shops) exacerbate this risk; vehicle access does not play an important role. We find no evidence of systematic spillovers onto individuals still ineligible for these rights.