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寒冬将至:早年经历与政治家的决策

Winter is Coming: Early-life Experiences and Politicians’ Decisions
The Economic Journal · 2024 · Shiqi Guo、Nan Gao、Pinghan Liang

中文摘要

本文追溯政治家政策偏好的形成,将其归结为早年经历。基于中国 2,806 名县委书记的履历信息及其在 1998—2007 年间主政的 1,713 个县的财政数据,我们发现,县委书记早年经历的饥荒严重程度每增加一个百分点,农业财政支出增加 0.8%,社会保障补贴支出增加 1.1%。农业税显著降低,促进了县委书记主政县的粮食生产。我们的发现表明,早年经历饥荒的县委书记可能形成对粮食充足的偏好,并关怀受苦民众。

Abstract

This paper traces the formation of politicians’ policy preferences to their early-life experiences. Based on biographical information on 2,806 county party secretaries in China and fiscal data from the 1,713 counties they governed during the 1998–2007 period, we find that a one-percentage-point increase in the early-life famine severity experienced by a county party secretary increases fiscal expenditures on agriculture by 0.8% and on social security subsidies by 1.1%. Agricultural taxes are reduced significantly, boosting grain production in the county party secretaries’ work counties. Our findings suggest that county party secretaries who experience early-life famine may develop preferences for food sufficiency and care for people suffering hardships.
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