中文摘要
本文考察家庭取暖价格如何影响美国的死亡率。暴露于寒冷是死亡率在冬季达到峰值的原因之一,而更高的取暖价格会通过减少取暖用量增加对寒冷的暴露。我们的实证方法结合了家庭取暖所用能源的空间差异与天然气和电力全国价格的时间差异。我们发现,更低的取暖价格会降低冬季死亡率,且主要由心血管和呼吸系统疾病所致。我们的估计表明,2000年代后期天然气价格下降42%——主要由页岩气繁荣所驱动——每年使美国避免了12,500例死亡。该效应在高贫困社区似乎尤其大。
Abstract
This paper examines how the price of home heating affects mortality in the United States. Exposure to cold is one reason that mortality peaks in winter, and a higher heating price increases exposure to cold by reducing heating use. Our empirical approach combines spatial variation in the energy source used for home heating and temporal variation in the national prices of natural gas and electricity. We find that a lower heating price reduces winter mortality, driven mostly by cardiovascular and respiratory causes. Our estimates imply that the 42% drop in the natural gas price in the late 2000s, mostly driven by the shale gas boom, averted 12,500 deaths per year in the United States. The effect appears to be especially large in high-poverty communities.