中文摘要
本文研究了第一次全球化时期(1870—1913年)普鲁士农业领域一次大规模贸易冲击——来自美洲的谷物入侵——的经济与政治效应。我们表明,这一冲击导致就业率和总收入下降。然而,我们并未观察到人均收入下降和政治极化,我们将其归因于强烈的移民反应。我们的结果表明,我们今天所看到的贸易冲击的负面且持续的影响并非全球化的普遍特征,而是取决于劳动力流动性。在分析中,我们将普鲁士工业与农业普查的县级数据数字化,并将其与产品层面的全国贸易数据相结合。我们利用普鲁士境内种植作物的跨地区差异,并以意大利和美国的贸易数据作为工具变量,以分离出外生变异。
Abstract
This paper studies the economic and political effects of a large trade shock in agriculture—the grain invasion from the Americas—in Prussia during the first globalisation (1870–1913). We show that this shock led to a decline in the employment rate and overall income. However, we do not observe declining per capita income and political polarisation, which we explain by a strong migration response. Our results suggest that the negative and persistent effects of trade shocks we see today are not a universal feature of globalisation, but depend on labour mobility. For our analysis, we digitise data from Prussian industrial and agricultural censuses on the county level and combine them with national trade data at the product level. We exploit the cross-regional variation in cultivated crops within Prussia and instrument with Italian and United States trade data to isolate exogenous variation.