增值税会影响国际贸易流量吗？来自30年税收改革的证据

中文摘要

本文利用1988年至2016年间欧盟成员国所有的增值税（VAT）变动来估计增值税对贸易流量的影响。我们发现，贸易流量对增值税的弹性较小，即使增值税变动幅度很大时也是如此。这些弹性远小于贸易文献中估计的贸易流量对关税的弹性。这一发现在不同时期、不同国家和不同改革类型中均成立。我们的结果表明，增值税不太可能扭曲贸易流量。

Abstract

This paper uses all value-added tax (VAT) changes across EU Member States from 1988 to 2016 to estimate the effect of VATs on trade flows. We find small elasticities of trade flows with respect to VATs, even when VAT changes are large. These elasticities are substantially smaller than the elasticities of trade flows with respect to tariffs estimated in the trade literature. This finding holds across different time periods, countries, and types of reforms. Our results imply that VATs are unlikely to distort trade flows.