Journal of Public Economics · 2021 · Kilian Heilmann、Matthew E. Kahn、Cheng Keat Tang
中文摘要
本文利用洛杉矶市空间细分的日度犯罪数据，估计环境气温对犯罪的影响，以及这一关系在不同街区之间的差异。我们的估计表明，与较凉爽的日子相比，当日最高气温超过75华氏度和90华氏度时，总体犯罪率分别高出1.72%和1.90%。这一高温—犯罪关系在低收入街区明显更强，且主要由非金钱性的激情犯罪所驱动，例如家庭犯罪和针对亲密伴侣的犯罪。利用警务内部数据，我们发现犯罪激增并非源于炎热日子里低收入地区警务投入的减少。相反，我们记录到，房龄和城市绿化等建筑环境特征与高温—犯罪关系的斜率高度相关。我们的估计表明，贫困程度最高的街区因高温引发的犯罪所承担的货币成本是较富裕地区的五倍，凸显了极端天气的影响差异之悬殊，即便在城市内部很小的地理范围内也是如此。
Abstract
Using spatially disaggregated daily crime data for the City of Los Angeles, this paper estimates the impact of ambient temperature on crime, and how this relationship varies across neighborhoods. Our estimates suggest that, relative to cooler days, overall crime rates are 1.72% and 1.90% higher when daily maximum temperature exceeds 75 and 90 degrees Fahrenheit respectively. This heat-crime relationship is much stronger in low-income neighborhoods, and is largely driven by non-pecuniary crimes of passion, such as domestic crimes and crimes against intimate partners. Using internal policing data, we find that the surge in crime is not a result of reduced policing effort in low-income areas during hot days. Instead, we document that characteristics of the built environment such as housing age and urban greenery are highly correlated with the slope of the heat-crime relationship. Our estimates suggest that the monetary cost of heat-induced crime incurred by the highest poverty neighborhoods is five times larger than that incurred by more affluent areas, highlighting the starkly differential impact of extreme weather even over small geographies within cities.