American Economic Journal: Economic Policy · 2021 · Chia‐Wen Chen、Weimin Hu、Christopher R. Knittel
中文摘要
本文考察车辆购买行为对2010年至2011年间中国最大的全国性节能汽车补贴计划的反应。利用项目资格门槛及补贴计划分阶段推开所产生的变异,研究发现该计划提升了受补贴车型的销量,但也在高燃油效率车型内部产生了替代效应。估计结果表明,若忽略这一替代效应,人们会得出该计划增进福利的结论;而事实上,该计划的边际成本超出边际收益的幅度高达300%。
Abstract
This paper examines the response of vehicle purchase behavior to China’s largest national subsidy program for fuel-efficient vehicles during 2010 and 2011. Using variation from the program’s eligibility cutoffs and the rollout of the subsidy program, the program is found to boost sales for subsidized vehicle models, but also to create a substitution effect within highly fuel-efficient vehicles. Estimates imply that ignoring the substitution effect would lead one to conclude that the program is welfare enhancing, whereas in fact the marginal cost of the program exceeds the marginal benefit by as much as 300 percent.