吸收阳光：电池投资、可再生能源与市场均衡
Soaking up the Sun: Battery Investment, Renewable Energy, and Market Equilibrium
Econometrica · 2025 · [{"name": "R. Andrew Butters", "affiliation": ["Indiana University"]}, {"name": "Jackson Dorsey", "affiliation": ["The University of Texas at Austin"]}, {"name": "Gautam Gowrisankaran", "affiliation": ["Center for Economic and Policy Research", "Columbia University"]}]
中文摘要
可再生能源与电池储能被视为互补技术，二者协同可促进碳排放的减少。我们构建并估计了一个用于计算大规模电池储能均衡效应的框架。利用加利福尼亚州的数据，我们发现，当可再生能源占比达到50%时，首个储能单元在没有补贴的情况下即可于2024年实现盈亏平衡。均衡效应至关重要：最初5000 MWh的储能容量将使批发电价下降5.6%，但储能容量从25,000 MWh增加到50,000 MWh仅能使电价下降2.6%。大规模电池储能将减少可调度发电商与可再生能源发电商双方的收入。均衡效应导致，在没有储能强制要求或补贴的情况下，电池采用在2030年前几乎不存在。30%的资本成本补贴——例如美国《通胀削减法案》中的补贴——可在2024年实现5000 MWh的电池容量，接近加利福尼亚州储能强制要求所需的水平。
Abstract
Renewable energy and battery storage are seen as complementary technologies that can together facilitate reductions in carbon emissions. We develop and estimate a framework to calculate the equilibrium effects of large‐scale battery storage. Using data from California, we find that the first storage unit breaks even by 2024 without subsidies when the renewable energy share reaches 50%. Equilibrium effects are important: the first 5000 MWh of storage capacity would reduce wholesale electricity prices by 5.6%, but an increase from 25,000 to 50,000 MWh would only reduce these prices by 2.6%. Large‐scale batteries will reduce revenues to both dispatchable generators and renewable energy sources. The equilibrium effects lead battery adoption to be virtually non‐existent until 2030, without a storage mandate or subsidy. A 30% capital cost subsidy—such as the one in the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act—achieves 5000 MWh of battery capacity by 2024, similar to the level required under California's storage mandate.