Using Nonlinear Budget Sets to Estimate Extensive Margin Responses: Method and Evidence from the Earnings Test
American Economic Journal: Applied Economics · 2021 · Alexander Gelber、Damon Jones、Daniel W. Sacks、Jae Geun Song
中文摘要
我们估计了社会保障年度收入审查 (Annual Earnings Test, AET) 对老年劳动者就业的影响。AET 按比例扣减社会保障领取人的当期给付，扣减幅度与其收入超过豁免额的部分成比例。利用弯折回归设计 (regression kink design) 和社会保障署 (Social Security Administration) 的数据，我们发现给付扣减率在豁免额处的不连续变化引起了就业率斜率的相应变化，这表明劳动供给的广延边际对该政策的敏感程度高于通常认为的水平。我们构建了一个模型与方法，可将行为反应转化为广延边际弹性的下限估计值 0.49，这意味着若不存在 AET，工作将增加 1 个百分点以上。
Abstract
We estimate the impact of the Social Security Annual Earnings Test (AET) on older workers’ employment. The AET reduces social security claimants’ current benefits in proportion to their earnings in excess of an exempt amount. Using a regression kink design and Social Security Administration data, we document that the discontinuous change in the benefit reduction rate at the exempt amount causes a corresponding change in the slope of the employment rate, suggesting that the extensive margin of labor supply is more sensitive to this policy than commonly thought. We develop a model and method that allow us to translate the behavioral responses into a lower bound estimate of 0.49 for the extensive margin elasticity, which implies more than a 1 percentage point increase in work in the absence of the AET.