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汽车购买中的消费者短视:来自自然实验的证据

Consumer Myopia in Vehicle Purchases: Evidence from a Natural Experiment
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy · 2021 · Kenneth T. Gillingham、Sébastien Houde、Arthur A. van Benthem

中文摘要

燃油经济性政策分析中的一个核心问题是,消费者是否对未来燃油成本存在短视。我们通过一项自然实验首次提供了关于消费者对燃油经济性估值的证据,该实验为燃油经济性评级提供了外生变异。我们考察了一次涉及 160 万辆汽车的燃油经济性评级重述所产生的短期均衡效应。利用由此隐含的支付意愿变化,我们发现消费者的行为表现出短视:在按 4% 的比率折现时,消费者对 1.00 美元的折现燃油成本与 0.16–0.39 美元的购买价格无差异。这种低估在广泛的假设条件下均持续存在。

Abstract

A central question in the analysis of fuel economy policy is whether consumers are myopic with regards to future fuel costs. We provide the first evidence on the consumer valuation of fuel economy from a natural experiment that provides exogenous variation in fuel economy ratings. We examine the short-run equilibrium effects of a restatement of fuel economy ratings that affected 1.6 million vehicles. Using the implied changes in willingness to pay, we find that consumers act myopically: consumers are indifferent between $1.00 in discounted fuel costs and $0. 16–0.39 in the purchase price when discounting at 4 percent. This undervaluation persists under a wide range of assumptions.
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