王座之网：1495–1918年欧洲的亲属关系与冲突

中文摘要

我们构建了一个将欧洲王室亲属网络、君主制与战争联系起来的数据库，以研究家族纽带对冲突的影响。为确立因果关系，我们利用统治者之间共同的亲属因非政治性死亡而造成的联系减少。这些死亡与战争频率和持续时间的大幅增加相关。我们提供证据表明，这些死亡仅通过改变亲属网络来影响冲突。在我们所关注的时期内，具有亲属纽带的欧洲君主的占比增至三倍。综合来看，这些发现有助于解释已被充分记录的欧洲战争频率下降现象。

Abstract

We construct a database linking European royal kinship networks, monarchies, and wars to study the effect of family ties on conflict. To establish causality, we exploit decreases in connection caused by apolitical deaths of rulers’ mutual relatives. These deaths are associated with substantial increases in the frequency and duration of war. We provide evidence that these deaths affect conflict only through changing the kinship network. Over our period of interest, the percentage of European monarchs with kinship ties increased threefold. Together, these findings help explain the well-documented decrease in European war frequency.