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通信基础设施与粮食价格稳定:来自中国电报网络的证据

Communication Infrastructure and Stabilizing Food Prices: Evidence from the Telegraph Network in China
American Economic Journal: Applied Economics · 2021 · Pei Gao、Yu-Hsiang Lei

中文摘要

本文利用一个独特的历史情境——19世纪中国铁路有限而电报网络不断扩张的时期——考察信息摩擦的降低是否能够稳定粮食价格。采用双重差分(DID)策略,我们发现电报接入(i)降低了极端价格的幅度和发生频率;(ii)缓解了价格对当地天气冲击的反应,但提高了对其他电报连通地区冲击的反应;(iii)以均值回复的方式影响价格波动率;即波动率在原先价格稳定的地区上升,而在价格不稳定的地区下降。

Abstract

This paper exploits a unique historical setting—the expansion of the telegraph network in nineteenth-century China when railroads were limited—to examine whether the reduction of information frictions stabilizes grain prices. Employing a difference-in-difference (DID) strategy, we find that the telegraph access (i) reduced both the magnitude and the incidence of extreme prices; (ii) mitigated price responses to local weather shocks but increased the responsiveness to shocks in other telegraph-connected regions; (iii) affected the price volatility in a mean-reverting pattern; i.e., volatility rose in previously price-stable regions, and volatility decreased in price-unstable regions.
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