Cell Phone Access and Election Fraud: Evidence from a Spatial Regression Discontinuity Design in Afghanistan
American Economic Journal: Applied Economics · 2021 · Robert M. Gonzalez
中文摘要
本文考察手机接入对选举舞弊的影响。我将手机覆盖地图与2009年阿富汗总统选举期间投票中心的位置相结合,以准确判定哪些投票中心处于覆盖范围之内。沿二维覆盖边界进行的空间断点回归设计的结果表明,手机覆盖能够遏制腐败行为。恰好位于覆盖范围内的投票中心,其报告的舞弊选票份额下降4个百分点,而出现舞弊投票站的概率下降8个百分点。关于手机覆盖对公民参与选举监督、与选举相关的叛乱暴力以及村庄部族构成之影响的分析表明,所观察到的舞弊减少很可能归因于手机接入增强了社会监督能力。
Abstract
This paper examines the impact of cell phone access on election fraud. I combine cell phone coverage maps with the location of polling centers during the 2009 Afghan presidential election to pinpoint which centers were exposed to coverage. Results from a spatial regression discontinuity design along the two-dimensional coverage boundary suggest that coverage deters corrupt behavior. Polling centers just inside coverage report a drop in the share of fraudulent votes of 4 percentage points, while the likelihood of a fraudulent station decreases by 8 percentage points. Analyses of the effect of coverage on citizen participation in election monitoring, election-related insurgent violence, and the tribal composition of villages suggest that the observed declines in fraud are likely attributed to cell phone access strengthening social monitoring capacity.