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是什么驱动了非民主领导:来自中国新冠重启的证据

What motivates non-democratic leadership: Evidence from COVID-19 reopenings in China
Journal of Public Economics · 2021 · Raymond Fisman、Hui Lin、Cong Sun、Yongxiang Wang、Daxuan Zhao

中文摘要

我们以中国城市的新冠疫情重启方案为窗口,考察政府在经济与社会方面的优先事项。我们基于官方政府新闻公告来度量重启,并表明重启可由民众不满情绪所预测——这种不满情绪通过前一周百度搜索中"失业"、"抗议"等词条的搜索量来捕捉。这些效应在疫情早期尤为强烈,表明政府将尽早启动经济复苏置于优先地位。这些结果表明,即使是非民主政府也可能回应民众关切,或许是为了尽量减少异议。

Abstract

We examine Chinese cities’ COVID-19 reopening plans as a window into governments’ economic and social priorities. We measure reopenings based on official government news announcements, and show that these are predicted by citizen discontent, as captured by Baidu searches for terms such as “unemployment” and “protest” in the prior week. The effects are particularly strong early in the epidemic, indicating a priority on initiating economic recovery as early as possible. These results indicate that even a non-democratic government may respond to citizen concerns, possibly to minimize dissent.
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