The Effect of Leaded Gasoline on Elderly Mortality: Evidence from Regulatory Exemptions
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy · 2021 · Alex Hollingsworth、Ivan Rudik
中文摘要
含铅汽油在全球范围内仍被用于航空和汽车赛车。本文利用监管豁免和一项新的准实验发现，赛车中含铅汽油的使用会增加环境铅水平、抬高血铅率并提高老年人死亡率。死亡率估计表明，每向汽油中添加一克铅所造成的损害超过 1,100 美元。本文的研究情境使我们能够排除潜在混淆因素，如相关污染物或社会经济地位。我们提供了首批将成年人死亡率与含铅汽油联系起来的因果估计，凸显了禁止道路用含铅汽油的价值，并给出了迄今最低环境铅水平下具有政策相关性的成本估计。
Abstract
Leaded gasoline is still used globally for aviation and automotive racing. Exploiting regulatory exemptions and a novel quasi-experiment, we find that leaded gasoline use in racing increases ambient lead, elevated blood lead rates, and elderly mortality. The mortality estimates indicate that each gram of lead added to gasoline exceeds $1,100 in damages. Our setting allows us to rule out potential confounders, such as correlated pollutants or socioeconomic status. We provide the first causal estimates linking adult mortality to leaded gasoline, highlight the value of banning on-road leaded gasoline, and present policy-relevant cost estimates at the lowest ambient levels to date.