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电动汽车转型与禁售燃油车的经济学

The Electric Vehicle Transition and the Economics of Banning Gasoline Vehicles
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy · 2021 · Stephen P. Holland、Erin T. Mansur、Andrew J. Yates

中文摘要

电动汽车具有变革个人出行的独特潜力。我们用一个动态模型分析这一转型,该模型刻画了电动汽车成本的下降、电力污染的减少以及车辆替代性的提高。基于美国市场的校准表明,在当前替代性水平下,从燃油车转型并非最优:禁止燃油车生产将带来巨大的无谓损失。在更高的替代性水平下,禁令可以减少因车辆组合与采用时机低效率而产生的无谓损失。累计燃油车生产配额的无谓损失更小,而电动汽车购买补贴对监管者关于替代性的认知偏差更为稳健。

Abstract

Electric vehicles have a unique potential to transform personal transportation. We analyze this transition with a dynamic model capturing falling costs of electric vehicles, decreasing pollution from electricity, and increasing vehicle substitutability. Our calibration to the US market shows a transition from gasoline vehicles is not optimal at current substitutability: a gasoline vehicle production ban would have large deadweight loss. At higher substitutability, a ban can reduce deadweight loss from vehicle mix and adoption timing inefficiencies. A cumulative gasoline vehicle production quota has smaller deadweight loss, and an electric vehicle purchase subsidy is more robust to regulator misperceptions about substitutability.
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