American Economic Journal: Economic Policy · 2021 · Christopher Boone、Arindrajit Dube、Lucas Goodman、Ethan Kaplan
中文摘要
本文利用大衰退期间最长给付期限的跨州差异,考察了失业保险(UI)对总体就业的影响。通过比较位于相邻州且彼此接壤的县,发现提高失业保险慷慨程度对总体就业没有统计显著的影响。点估计的量级一律较小,且最精确的估计排除了失业保险期限延长导致就业人口比下降超过0.35个百分点的可能性。这些结果与大多数微观层面劳动供给研究所隐含的负效应形成对照,并同时与职位配给和总需求两种渠道相一致。
Abstract
This paper examines the impact of unemployment insurance (UI) on aggregate employment by exploiting cross-state variation in the maximum benefit duration during the Great Recession. Comparing adjacent counties located in neighboring states, there is no statistically significant impact of increasing UI generosity on aggregate employment. Point estimates are uniformly small in magnitude, and the most precise estimates rule out employment-to-population ratio reductions in excess of 0.35 percentage points from the UI extension. The results contrast with the negative effects implied by most micro-level labor supply studies and are consistent with both job rationing and aggregate demand channels.