American Economic Journal: Economic Policy · 2021 · Ithai Z. Lurie、Daniel W. Sacks、Bradley Heim
中文摘要
我们利用纳税申报表数据,采用断点回归与扭结回归设计,估计《平价医疗法案》(ACA)个人强制参保对保险覆盖的影响。我们得到四项关键结果。第一,每个未参保月份实际缴纳的罚款不足法定金额的一半。第二,尽管如此,我们发现,无论是强制参保在广延边际上的暴露,还是强制参保罚款的边际增加,均引起在图上清晰可见且统计显著的反应。第三,反应主体存在相当大的异质性;男性的反应尤为明显。第四,我们的估计意味着对个人强制参保的定量反应相当小,在健康保险交易所中尤其如此。
Abstract
We estimate the effect of the ACA’s individual mandate on insurance coverage using regression discontinuity and regression kink designs with tax return data. We have four key results. First, the actual penalty paid per uninsured month is less than half the statutory amount. Second, nonetheless, we find visually clear and statistically signifi-cant responses to both extensive margin exposure to the mandate and to marginal increases in the mandate penalty. Third, we find substantial heterogeneity in who responds; men are especially responsive. Fourth, our estimates imply fairly small quantitative responses to the individual mandate, especially in the Health Insurance Exchanges.