名义刚性下的贸易：理解中国冲击的失业与福利效应
Trade with Nominal Rigidities: Understanding the Unemployment and Welfare Effects of the China Shock
Journal of Political Economy · 2025 · [{"name": "Andrés Rodrı́guez-Clare", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Mauricio Ulate", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Jose P. Vasquez", "affiliation": []}]
中文摘要
我们提出一个纳入名义工资向下刚性的动态定量贸易与迁移模型，并展示该框架如何能够产生与研究中国冲击的实证文献所发现的失业和劳动参与变化相匹配的结果。我们发现，中国冲击使美国大多数州的平均福利上升，其中包括许多在转型过程中经历失业的州。然而，名义刚性使美国总体福利增益减少了约三分之二。此外，有 18 个州在存在向下名义工资刚性的情况下经历了福利损失，而若不存在该刚性，这些州本可获得福利增益。
Abstract
We present a dynamic quantitative trade and migration model that incorporates downward nominal wage rigidities and show how this framework can generate changes in unemployment and labor participation that match those uncovered by the empirical literature studying the China shock. We find that the China shock leads to average welfare increases in most US states, including many that experience unemployment during the transition. However, nominal rigidities reduce the overall US gains by around two-thirds. In addition, there are 18 states that experience welfare losses in the presence of downward nominal wage rigidity that would have experienced gains without it.