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邻家之殃:消费中的同伴效应

Thy Neighbor’s Misfortune: Peer Effect on Consumption
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy · 2021 · Sumit Agarwal、Wenlan Qian、Xin Zou

中文摘要

本文利用新加坡一份具有代表性的大型信用卡与借记卡交易样本,研究那些同一楼栋邻居遭遇个人破产的个体的消费反应。新加坡独特的破产规则表明,流动性冲击驱动了个人破产决策,导致破产者消费大幅下降。在破产后1年期间,同伴的月度刷卡消费下降3.4%。与之紧邻楼栋中的个体以及与破产者在事件后社会联系减少的消费者,其消费均未出现下降。上述发现意味着显著的社会乘数效应,为原始消费冲击的2.8倍。

Abstract

Using a large, representative sample of credit and debit card transactions in Singapore, this paper studies the consumption response of individuals whose same-building neighbors experienced personal bankruptcy. The unique bankruptcy rules in Singapore suggest liquidity shocks drive personal bankruptcy decisions, leading to a substantial drop in consumption for the bankrupt. Peers’ monthly card consumption decreases by 3.4 percent over the 1-year postbankruptcy period. There exists no consumption decrease among individuals in immediately adjacent buildings nor for consumers with diminished postevent social ties with the bankrupt. The findings imply a significant social multiplier effect of 2.8 times the original consumption shock.
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