人们会对房贷利息扣除作出反应吗？来自丹麦的准实验证据

中文摘要

利用丹麦一项大幅削减中高收入家庭房贷利息扣除的重大改革，我们研究税收补贴如何影响住房决策。我们给出四项主要发现。第一，房贷扣除对中高收入家庭的住房自有率具有被精确估计为零的效应。第二，房贷扣除在集约边际上对住房需求有明确影响，促使房主购买更大、更昂贵的住房。第三，该扣除对家庭金融决策具有可观影响，促使其增加负债。最后，税收补贴的削减降低了均衡房价。

Abstract

Using a major reform that scaled back the mortgage interest deduction for middle- and high-income households in Denmark, we study how tax subsidies affect housing decisions. We present four main findings. First, the mortgage deduction has a precisely estimated zero effect on homeownership for high- and middle-income households. Second, the mortgage deduction has a clear effect on housing demand at the intensive margin, inducing homeowners to buy larger and more expensive houses. Third, the deduction has sizeable effects on household financial decisions, inducing them to increase indebtedness. Finally, the reduction of the tax subsidy lowered equilibrium house prices.