American Economic Journal: Economic Policy · 2021 · Anh D.M. Nguyen、Luisanna Onnis、Raffaele Rossi
中文摘要
本文估计所得税和消费税外生变动的效应。税收冲击以英国税收负担变化的叙述性记录作为代理变量。所得税削减对GDP、私人消费和投资有较大影响。消费税削减的效应较为温和,且对GDP及其组成部分不具有统计显著性。将税负从所得转向消费具有扩张性。与传统公共财政理论相一致,这些结果表明,在研究财政政策的传导机制时,区分直接税与间接税至关重要。
Abstract
This paper estimates the effects of exogenous changes in income and consumption taxes. The tax shocks are proxied with a narrative account of tax liability changes in the United Kingdom. Income tax cuts have large effects on GDP, private consumption, and investment. The effects of consumption tax cuts are modest and not statistically significant on GDP and its components. Shifting the burden of taxation from income to consumption is expansionary. Consistent with conventional public finance theories, these results indicate that it is crucial to distinguish between direct and indirect taxation when studying the transmission mechanism of fiscal policy.