Do EITC expansions pay for themselves? Effects on tax revenue and government transfers
Journal of Public Economics · 2021 · Jacob E. Bastian、Maggie R. Jones
中文摘要
本文通过估计EITC对税收收入和政府转移支付支出的影响——既包括直接影响,也包括通过受领者行为变化产生的间接影响——来计算EITC的净成本。我们表明,EITC提高了劳动供给和收入,从而增加了家庭缴纳的税款,并减少了家庭获得的政府转移支付。利用IRS–CPS关联数据以及若干次EITC政策变动,并聚焦于已婚与未婚女性,我们发现,在一年的期限内,EITC的净成本仅相当于其(700亿美元)预算成本的17%。尽管EITC是美国规模最大、最重要的公共援助项目之一,它实际上却是美国成本最低的反贫困项目之一。
Abstract
This paper calculates the EITC’s net cost by estimating effects, both direct and through recipients’ behavioral changes, on tax revenue and government transfer spending. We show that the EITC increases labor supply and income, thereby increasing the taxes households pay and reducing the government transfer payments they receive. Using linked IRS–CPS data and several EITC policy changes, and focusing on married and unmarried women, we find that the EITC’s net cost is only 17 percent of the ($70 billion) budgetary cost over a one-year period. Although the EITC is one of the U.S.’s largest and most important public assistance programs, the EITC is actually one of the U.S.’s least expensive anti-poverty programs.