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相对价格与气候政策:非市场品的稀缺性如何驱动政策评估

Relative Prices and Climate Policy: How the Scarcity of Nonmarket Goods Drives Policy Evaluation
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy · 2021 · Moritz A. Drupp、Martin C. Hänsel

中文摘要

气候变化不仅影响生产与市场消费,还影响非市场品(如环境舒适度)的相对稀缺性。我们在诺德豪斯(Nordhaus)的气候-经济动态综合模型(DICE)中研究由此导致的相对价格变化的根本驱动因素、其潜在量级及其对气候政策的含义,从而回应了针对该模型的一项关键批评。我们基于现有最佳证据为这些相对价格变化提出了合理区间。我们的基准校准显示,纳入相对价格相当于将纯时间偏好率降低0.6个百分点,并使碳的社会成本高出50%以上。

Abstract

Climate change not only impacts production and market consumption but also the relative scarcity of nonmarket goods, such as environmental amenities. We study fundamental drivers of the resulting relative price changes, their potential magnitude, and their implications for climate policy in Nordhaus’s Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy (DICE) model, thereby addressing one of its key criticisms. We propose plausible ranges for these relative prices changes based on best available evidence. Our central calibration reveals that accounting for relative prices is equivalent to decreasing pure time preference by 0.6 percentage points and leads to a more than 50 percent higher social cost of carbon.
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