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住房需求对融资条件的敏感性:来自一项调查的证据

The Sensitivity of Housing Demand to Financing Conditions: Evidence from a Survey
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy · 2021 · Andreas Fuster、Basit Zafar

中文摘要

度量住房需求对抵押贷款利率和可用杠杆的敏感性颇具挑战性,因为这些变量通常不存在外生变异。本文通过设计一项策略性调查来规避这一问题:在该调查中,受访者报告在不同融资情景下其对住房的支付意愿(WTP)。放宽首付约束或非住房财富的外生增加对支付意愿有很大影响,对较贫困和受信贷约束更强的家庭尤为如此。然而,改变抵押贷款利率对支付意愿仅有适度影响。这些发现对房价决定的理论模型以及政策均具有启示意义。

Abstract

Measuring the sensitivity of housing demand to mortgage rates and available leverage is challenging because there is generally no exogenous variation in these variables. This paper circumvents this issue by designing a strategic survey in which respondents report their willingness to pay (WTP) for a home under different financing scenarios. Relaxation of down payment constraints or an exogenous increase in nonhousing wealth has large effects on WTP, especially for poorer and more credit-constrained households. However, changing the mortgage rate has only moderate effects on WTP. These findings have implications for theoretical models of house price determination and for policy.
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