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气候变化与农业:自给农户对极端高温的反应

Climate Change and Agriculture: Subsistence Farmers’ Response to Extreme Heat
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy · 2021 · Fernando M. Aragón、Francisco Oteiza、Juan Pablo Rud

中文摘要

本文考察自给农户如何应对极端高温。利用秘鲁家庭的微观数据,我们发现高温会降低农业生产率、增加种植面积并改变作物结构。这些发现与以下解释相一致:农户将投入调整作为削弱极端高温对产出影响的短期机制。这种反应似乎与其他应对策略(如出售牲畜)互补,但会加剧单产的下降,而单产是农业生产率的标准衡量指标。基于我们的估计,我们表明在量化与气候变化相关的损失时,考虑土地调整十分重要。

Abstract

This paper examines how subsistence farmers respond to extreme heat. Using microdata from Peruvian households, we find that high temperatures reduce agricultural productivity, increase area planted, and change crop mix. These findings are consistent with farmers using input adjustments as a short-term mechanism to attenuate the effect of extreme heat on output. This response seems to complement other coping strategies, such as selling livestock, but exacerbates the drop in yields, a standard measure of agricultural productivity. Using our estimates, we show that accounting for land adjustments is important to quantify damages associated with climate change.
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