Quarterly Journal of Economics · 2025 · [{"name": "Juliana Londoño-Vélez", "affiliation": ["National Bureau of Economic Research"]}, {"name": "Estefanía Saravia", "affiliation": ["University of California, Los Angeles"]}]
中文摘要
摘要 本文利用高质量行政微观数据以及堕胎可及性的可信外生变异，考察拒绝一项意愿堕胎对哥伦比亚妇女和儿童的影响。妇女可以通过tutela（一种宪法保护令）寻求合法堕胎，案件随机分配给法官。女性法官拒绝堕胎案件的可能性比男性法官低20个百分点（32%），我们将法官性别作为堕胎被拒的工具变量。拒绝一项意愿堕胎兼具即时和持久影响：它使妇女在九个月内的死亡风险增加2.5个百分点，主要原因是不安全堕胎程序，并使妊娠足月分娩的可能性提高31个百分点。追踪长达15年后的结果显示，被拒绝堕胎的妇女经历了更多健康问题、更低的教育获得、更低的劳动力参与率，以及更高的单亲母亲比例、贫困率和对政府援助的依赖率。在其母亲寻求堕胎之前已出生的现有子女，上学的可能性更低，而工作的可能性更高。
Abstract
Abstract This article examines the impact of denying a wanted abortion on women and children in Colombia using high-quality administrative microdata and credibly exogenous variation in abortion access. Women can seek legal abortions through a tutela, with cases randomly assigned to judges. Female judges are 20 percentage points (32%) less likely to deny abortion cases than are male judges, and we use the judge’s sex as an instrument for abortion denial. Denial of a wanted abortion has both immediate and lasting effects. It increases a woman’s risk of death by 2.5 percentage points within nine months, mainly due to unsafe abortion procedures, and raises the likelihood of carrying the pregnancy to term by 31 percentage points. Tracking outcomes up to 15 years later, we find that women denied an abortion experience more health issues, lower educational attainment, reduced labor force participation, and higher rates of single motherhood, poverty, and reliance on government assistance. Existing children, born before their mother sought an abortion, are less likely to attend school and are more likely to work.