新技术的扩散

Quarterly Journal of Economics · 2025 · [{"name": "Aakash Kalyani", "affiliation": ["Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis"]}, {"name": "Nicholas Bloom", "affiliation": ["National Bureau of Economic Research", "Stanford University"]}, {"name": "Marcela Carvalho", "affiliation": ["Harvard University Press", "London Business School"]}, {"name": "Tarek A. Hassan", "affiliation": ["National Bureau of Economic Research"]}, {"name": "Josh Lerner", "affiliation": ["National Bureau of Economic Research", "Harvard University Press"]}, {"name": "Ahmed Tahoun", "affiliation": ["London Business School"]}]

中文摘要

摘要：我们利用对专利、招聘信息和财报电话会议的文本分析，识别出与新技术相关的短语，从而识别出关于新技术相关工作岗位扩散的四个典型事实。第一，具有经济影响力的新技术的开发在地理上高度集中，甚至比整体专利活动更为集中：在最具经济影响力的技术中，56%仅来自美国两个地区——硅谷和东北走廊。第二，随着技术成熟、相关工作岗位数量增长，招聘活动在地理上扩散开来，这一过程非常缓慢，完全扩散大约需要50年。第三，尽管新技术的初始招聘高度偏向技能，但随着时间推移，新职位的平均技能水平下降，吸纳了越来越多的低技能工人。最后，较高技能职位招聘的地理扩散速度最慢，新技术的发源地在数十年内仍然是该技术高技能工作岗位的核心所在。

Abstract

Abstract We identify phrases associated with novel technologies using textual analysis of patents, job postings, and earnings calls, enabling us to identify four stylized facts on the diffusion of jobs relating to new technologies. First, the development of economically impactful new technologies is geographically highly concentrated, more so even than overall patenting: 56% of the most economically impactful technologies come from just two U.S. locations, Silicon Valley and the Northeast Corridor. Second, as the technologies mature and the number of related jobs grows, hiring spreads geographically. This process is very slow, taking around 50 years to disperse fully. Third, while initial hiring in new technologies is highly skill-biased, over time the mean skill level in new positions declines, drawing in an increasing number of lower-skilled workers. Finally, the geographic spread of hiring is slowest for higher-skilled positions, with the locations where new technologies were pioneered remaining the focus for the technology's high-skill jobs for decades.