Can gender quotas in candidate lists empower women? Evidence from a regression discontinuity design
中文摘要
我们利用西班牙地方选举的证据,对候选人名单性别配额的短期与中期效应进行了全面分析。在封闭名单比例代表制下,配额于2007年在居民超过5000人的市镇实施,并于2011年扩展至居民超过3000人的市镇。利用断点回归设计,我们发现配额使候选人名单中的女性比例提高约8个百分点,使议会议员中的女性比例提高4个百分点。然而,在三轮选举之内,我们并未观察到政客质量的若干代理指标、女性获得党魁或市长等权势职位的概率,以及公共财政的规模与构成出现任何显著变化。总体而言,我们的分析表明,候选人名单配额未能消除阻碍女性在政治中发挥影响力的壁垒。
Abstract
We provide a comprehensive analysis of the short- and medium-term effects of gender quotas in candidate lists using evidence from local elections in Spain. In the context of a closed list system with proportional representation, quotas were introduced in 2007 in municipalities with more than 5000 inhabitants, and were extended in 2011 to municipalities with more than 3000 inhabitants. Using a Regression Discontinuity Design, we find that quotas increased the share of women in candidate lists by around 8 p.p. and among council members by 4 p.p. However, within three rounds of elections, we do not observe any significant variation in several proxies of politicians’ quality, the probability that women reach powerful positions such as party leader or mayor, or the size and composition of public finances. Overall, our analysis suggests that quotas in candidate lists fail to remove the barriers that prevent women from playing an influential role in politics.