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住房流动性与长期护理保险需求:一项定量评估

Housing liquidity and long-term care insurance demand: A quantitative evaluation
Journal of Public Economics · 2021 · Bertrand Achou

中文摘要

在理论上,流动性不足的住房可能替代长期护理保险(LTCI),因为退休人员主要在搬入长期护理机构时才动用住房财富。本文构建并估计了一个丰富的单身退休人员生命周期模型,以评估住房流动性对LTCI需求的影响是否很大。总体而言,我发现通过提高住房流动性来增加LTCI需求的前景相当有限,因为即使住房流动性大幅提高,也只会带来LTCI需求的温和增长。我还发现住房流动性对终身年金需求的影响有限。最后,我表明,用于合理化反向抵押贷款低接受率的各类遗产动机通常与LTCI的低需求不相容,这提示其他因素可能在该反向抵押贷款的低接受率中发挥作用。

Abstract

In theory, illiquid housing may substitute for long-term care insurance (LTCI) as retirees decumulate housing wealth mainly when moving to long-term care facilities. In this paper, I build and estimate a rich life-cycle model of single retirees in order to evaluate whether the impact of housing liquidity on LTCI demand is large. Overall, I find that the prospects of increasing LTCI demand by making housing more liquid are quite limited, as even large increases in housing liquidity generate modest increases in LTCI demand. I also find a limited impact of housing liquidity on the demand for life annuities. Finally, I show that the types of bequest motives used to rationalize the low take-up of reverse mortgages are generally inconsistent with the low demand for LTCI, suggesting that other factors may play a role in this low take-up of reverse mortgages.
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