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流行病期间的劳动力市场政策

Labor market policies during an epidemic
Journal of Public Economics · 2021 · Serdar Birinci、Fatih Karahan、Yusuf Mercan、Kurt See

中文摘要

我们研究旨在抵消流行病期间防控措施经济后果的劳动力市场政策的实证与规范含义。我们将一个标准的流行病学模型嵌入劳动力市场均衡搜寻模型,以比较失业保险(UI)扩围与工资补贴。单独来看,能够保留匹配资本并促成经济快速复苏的工资补贴优于成本等价的失业保险扩围。然而,若将二者联合考虑,成本等价的最优组合会将预算的20%分配给工资补贴、80%分配给失业保险。这两种政策是互补的,分别服务于生产率阶梯的不同层级。较小的工资补贴份额足以保留高生产率岗位,同时为面临不可避免失业的劳动者保留了社会救助的空间。

Abstract

We study the positive and normative implications of labor market policies that counteract the economic fallout from containment measures during an epidemic. We incorporate a standard epidemiological model into an equilibrium search model of the labor market to compare unemployment insurance (UI) expansions and payroll subsidies. In isolation, payroll subsidies that preserve match capital and enable a swift economic recovery are preferred over a cost-equivalent UI expansion. When considered jointly, however, a cost-equivalent optimal mix allocates 20 percent of the budget to payroll subsidies and 80 percent to UI. The two policies are complementary, catering to different rungs of the productivity ladder. The small share of payroll subsidies is sufficient to preserve high-productivity jobs, but it leaves room for social assistance to workers who face inevitable job loss.
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