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政治极化中的因与果:一个动态分析

Cause and Effect in Political Polarization: A Dynamic Analysis
Journal of Political Economy · 2021 · Steven Callander、Juan Carlos Carbajal

中文摘要

极化既是对当前政治状态的描述,也是一条数十年来在政治领域层层扩散的动态路径。我们提供一个简单模型,用以解释极化为何会逐渐显现,以及为何是精英先极化且极化幅度更大,而大众极化出现较晚且不那么明显。我们将一个表面上无关的、关于选民如何形成偏好的发现纳入选举的动态模型。这一变化与策略性候选人的反应相结合,形成了一个反馈回路,能够复制数据中的许多特征。我们探讨该模型对政治其他方面的含义,并推演它对极化未来的预测。

Abstract

Polarization is both a description of the current state of politics and a dynamic path that has rippled across the political domain over decades. We provide a simple model that explains why polarization appears incrementally and why it was elites who polarized first and more dramatically, whereas mass polarization came later and has been less pronounced. We incorporate an ostensibly unrelated finding about how voters form preferences into a dynamic model of elections. This change, when combined with the response of strategic candidates, creates a feedback loop that can replicate many features of the data. We explore the model’s implications for other aspects of politics and trace what it predicts for the future of polarization.
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