Journal of Political Economy · 2021 · Brian D. Bell、Rui Ponte Costa、Stephen J. Machin
中文摘要
我们提供了一个统一的经验研究框架,以考察美国 1980 至 2010 年间陆续颁布的一系列州级辍学年龄改革为何带来了犯罪减少。由于这些改革改变了犯罪—年龄曲线的形状,它们既产生了短期的剥夺犯罪能力(incapacitation)效应,也产生了更具持续性的犯罪减少效应。与考察美国更早期教育改革的研究不同,我们发现改革引起的犯罪减少主要并非源于教育水平的提升。在分解短期与长期效应后,1980 年后教育改革所观察到的较长期效应主要归因于动态剥夺犯罪能力效应(dynamic incapacitation)。
Abstract
We provide a unifying empirical framework to study why crime reductions occurred due to a sequence of state-level dropout age reforms enacted between 1980 and 2010 in the United States. Because the reforms changed the shape of crime-age profiles, they generate both a short-term incapacitation effect and a more sustained crime-reducing effect. In contrast to previous research looking at earlier US education reforms, we find that reform-induced crime reduction does not arise primarily from education improvements. Decomposing short- and long-run effects, the observed longer-run effect for the post-1980 education reforms is primarily attributed to dynamic incapacitation.