供给侧气候政策的量化
Quantifying Supply-Side Climate Policies
Review of Economic Studies · 2026 · [{"name": "Lassi Ahlvik", "affiliation": ["University of Helsinki"]}, {"name": "Jørgen Juel Andersen", "affiliation": ["BI Norwegian Business School"]}, {"name": "Jonas Hveding Hamang", "affiliation": ["Høyskolen Kristiania"]}, {"name": "Torfinn Harding", "affiliation": ["Høyskolen Kristiania"]}]
中文摘要
摘要 石油市场中的供给侧气候政策会产生何种影响？我们使用全球公司层面数据，估计了2000年至2019年间84项生产税改革对石油生产、勘探和发现的影响。我们发现，提高税率主要减少了公司的勘探支出和石油发现，同时也减少了非常规石油的短期产量。随后，我们使用一个延伸至本世纪末的短期与中期动态模型，量化了这些影响对石油市场的含义。对石油生产商征收20个百分点的全球气候权利金附加费，将使前5年来自石油的年均排放减少5%至7%，中期减少9%至20%。如果只有经合组织（OECD）国家采用这一政策，则在中期，总减排量的47%至73%将被非经合组织国家产量的增加所抵消。
Abstract
Abstract What are the effects of supply-side climate policies in the oil market? We use global company-level data to estimate the impact of 84 reforms of production taxes between 2000 and 2019 on oil production, exploration, and discoveries. We find that higher taxes primarily reduce companies’ exploration expenditures and oil discoveries, and also reduce short-term production of unconventional oil. We then quantify the implications for the oil market using a short- and medium-term dynamic model extending until the end of the century. Imposing a global climate royalty surcharge of 20 percentage points on oil producers reduces average annual emissions from oil by 5–7% in the first 5 years, and 9–20% in the medium term. If only OECD countries adopt this policy, 47–73% of the total emission reductions would be offset by increased production in non-OECD countries in the medium term.