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生活成本的周期性不平等及其对货币政策的含义

Cyclical Inequality in the Cost of Living and Implications for Monetary Policy
International Economic Review · 2026 · Ting Lan、Lerong Li、Minghao Li

中文摘要

本文记录了一个事实:边际消费倾向(MPC)更高的家庭消费的是价格更具灵活性的商品。因此,他们面临更具周期性和波动性的通胀,并且在扩张性货币政策冲击之后经历更高的通胀。我们将这一 MPC—价格粘性关系嵌入一个易于处理的、多部门两主体新凯恩斯(TANK)模型中,并表明相对于同质消费篮子基准,这一关系使货币政策有效性降低约 15%。引入异质性消费篮子还会产生一个无效率的灵活价格均衡,从而带来稳定化与再分配之间的新型权衡,这改变了最优货币政策处方。

Abstract

ABSTRACT This paper documents that households with higher marginal propensities to consume (MPCs) consume goods with more flexible prices. Consequently, they face more cyclical and volatile inflation, and experience higher inflation following expansionary monetary policy shocks. We embed this MPC‐price stickiness relationship into a tractable multi‐sector two‐agent New Keynesian (TANK) model and show that it dampens monetary policy effectiveness by about 15% relative to a homogeneous‐basket benchmark. Introducing heterogeneous consumption baskets also generates an inefficient flexible‐price equilibrium, leading to a novel trade‐off between stabilization and redistribution, which alters the optimal monetary policy prescription.
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