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策略性且受约束报告下大学分配问题中的偏好还原

Recovering Preferences in College Assignment Problems Under Strategic and Constrained Reports
International Economic Review · 2026 · Allan Hernandez-Chanto

中文摘要

世界上许多国家每年都使用集中录取制度将成千上万的学生分配到大学专业。然而,录取政策变化对学生福利的影响在很大程度上仍属未知。为解决这一问题,我们提出一种新方法,可在学生拥有私人信息且面临可提交志愿数量约束的机制下还原学生的真实偏好。该方法包括两个步骤:第一步,使用基于拼接算法的显示性偏好方法对序数偏好进行非参数还原;第二步,使用吉布斯抽样估计器或校准方法还原基数偏好。我们将该方法应用于哥斯达黎加大学的行政数据,评估反事实政策,并基于升价拍卖和竞争均衡价格提出两种替代机制。

Abstract

ABSTRACT Many countries around the world use centralized admission systems to assign thousands of students to university programs every year. However, the impact of admission policy changes on students' welfare remains largely unknown. To address this, we propose a novel methodology that recovers students' true preferences in a mechanism where students hold private information and face constraints on the number of options they can submit as preferences. This methodology involves two steps: first, the nonparametric recovery of ordinal preferences using a revealed preference approach based on a concatenation algorithm; and, second, the recovery of cardinal preferences using either a Gibbs sampler estimator or a calibration method. Applying our methodology to administrative data from the University of Costa Rica, we evaluate counterfactual policies and suggest two alternate mechanisms based on an ascending auction and competitive equilibrium prices.
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