《加州带薪家庭休假法》对女性职业与生育的长期影响：来自断点回归设计与美国税收数据的新证据
The Long-Run Effects of California’s Paid Family Leave Act on Women’s Careers and Childbearing: New Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design and US Tax Data
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy · 2025 · [{"name": "Martha Bailey", "affiliation": ["University of California, Los Angeles"]}, {"name": "Tanya Byker", "affiliation": ["Middlebury College"]}, {"name": "Elena Patel", "affiliation": ["University of Utah"]}, {"name": "Shanthi Ramnath", "affiliation": ["Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago"]}]
中文摘要
我们利用行政税收数据，分析加州2004年《带薪家事休假法》(CPFL) 对女性就业、收入和生育的累积长期影响。断点回归设计利用了该法律下可获得的带薪休假周数的急剧增加。我们没有发现CPFL提高就业、增加收入或促进生育的证据，这表明CPFL对性别工资差距或生育惩罚的影响甚微。对于初为人母者，我们发现CPFL在其生育十年后降低了就业和收入。
Abstract
We use administrative tax data to analyze the cumulative, long-run effects of California's 2004 Paid Family Leave Act (CPFL) on women's employment, earnings, and childbearing. A regression-discontinuity design exploits the sharp increase in the weeks of paid leave available under the law. We find no evidence that CPFL increased employment, boosted earnings, or encouraged childbearing, suggesting that CPFL had little effect on the gender pay gap or child penalty. For first-time mothers, we find that CPFL reduced employment and earnings a decade after they gave birth.